Homeland explosive consequence and threat (HExCAT) modeling and medical mitigation tool
Inventors
Gooding, Rachel • Dolan, Alexander • Bradley, David • Wegman, Kevin • Wilson, Patrick • Hawkins, Brian • Davis, Timothy • Kirsch, Thomas
Assignees
US Department of Homeland Security
Publication Number
US-12213739-B2
Publication Date
2025-02-04
Expiration Date
2042-01-14
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Abstract
A system to estimate consequences of an explosion includes a scenario generator to generate a scenario based on user input and scenario parameters; an explosive device model generator to generate an explosive device model based on the user input and explosive device parameters; a propagation of hazards modeler to model propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and hazard parameters; an injury modeler to model injuries corresponding to modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario based on injury parameters; and an iteration and output generator to iterate by using additional iterative subsets of the parameters to generate the scenario, generate the explosive device model, model propagation of hazards, and model injuries, until parameter spaces of the parameters are covered. The iteration and output generator generates an injury record based injury outcomes from the modeling of injuries corresponding to the iterating.
Core Innovation
The invention provides a system and method to estimate consequences of an explosion by generating and modeling explosion scenarios based on user input and iterative subsets of parameter distributions. The system integrates scenario generation indicating indoor or outdoor targets, explosive device modeling, propagation of hazards corresponding to the detonation, injury modeling based on the hazards, and medical mitigation response modeling. It iterates through multiple simulations covering the parameter spaces until generating comprehensive injury and medical mitigation response records.
The problem addressed is the lack of coordinated modeling packages that can simulate complex explosive attack scenarios involving buildings and other objects with adequate data. Existing modeling packages require enormous datasets or lack coordination to yield complex outcomes related to explosive attacks and subsequent medical responses.
Claims Coverage
The patent contains three independent claims directed to a computerized method, a system, and a tangible non-transitory computer-readable medium, each providing features for modeling consequence of an explosion.
Integration of multi-parameter probabilistic modeling for explosion consequence estimation
The system receives user inputs and iterates using Monte-Carlo probabilistic simulations over distributions of scenario, explosive device, hazard, injury, and medical mitigation parameters to generate and model scenarios, explosive device models, hazard propagation, injuries, and medical mitigation responses until the discretized space representing the scenario is covered.
Scenario generation using geospatial databases and three-dimensional grid discretization
The scenario generation logic communicates with geospatial databases to retrieve and model data based on a three-dimensional grid of cells, discretizing space representing the scenario, differentiating between indoor and outdoor explosion targets.
Medical mitigation response modeling using grouped victim stock-and-flow dynamics with tiered treatment pathways
The medical mitigation response modeler assigns victims into groups according to injury exposure, progresses groups through multiple treatment-related stocks (injured, symptomatic, access to medical care, candidates for treatment, treatment stocks) via a tiered approach, simulating medical responses and outcomes during the iterative simulation process.
The claims collectively describe a comprehensive computational framework that integrates scenario generation, explosive device modeling, hazard propagation, injury modeling, and detailed medical mitigation response simulation through probabilistic iterative processes, enabling nuanced estimation of explosion consequences and medical outcomes.
Stated Advantages
Reduces the amount of user input required by providing default parameter values while still allowing specificity for scenario definition.
Enables simulation of a wide range of potential explosive events, including indoor and outdoor attack scenarios, with probabilistic modeling to capture uncertainty.
Integrates realistic propagation of explosive hazards and detailed modeling of human injuries and medical mitigation responses using rapid Monte-Carlo simulations.
Allows assessment of worst-case outcomes and evaluation of strategies to mitigate those outcomes using first-principle models with engineering assumptions.
Supports large scale computation enabling thousands of unique scenario simulations within seconds for timely analysis.
Documented Applications
Simulating explosive attacks with devices placed inside buildings, including various types such as museums, offices, hospitals, cruise ships, malls, theaters, and subway stations.
Simulating outdoor explosive attacks in urban centers, outdoor special event locations, or stadiums with generated cityscape models based on GIS and census data.
Estimating human health effects and structural damage due to explosive detonation including blast, fragmentation, thermal effects, and building collapse.
Predicting medical outcomes by simulating medical mitigation responses including triage, treatment pathways, hospital resource utilization, and impact of medical countermeasures.
Assessing the efficacy of existing medical response systems and evaluating improved mitigation strategies such as stockpile optimization and treatment protocols.
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