Homeland explosive consequence and threat (HExCAT) modeling tool
Inventors
Gooding, Rachel • Dolan, Alexander • Bradley, David • Wegman, Kevin • Wilson, Patrick • Hawkins, Brian • Davis, Timothy • Kirsch, Thomas
Assignees
US Department of Homeland Security
Publication Number
US-11766294-B1
Publication Date
2023-09-26
Expiration Date
2042-01-14
Interested in licensing this patent?
MTEC can help explore whether this patent might be available for licensing for your application.
Abstract
A system to estimate consequences of an explosion includes a scenario generator to generate a scenario based on user input and scenario parameters; an explosive device model generator to generate an explosive device model based on the user input and explosive device parameters; a propagation of hazards modeler to model propagation of hazards into the scenario based on the user input and hazard parameters; an injury modeler to model injuries corresponding to modeling propagation of hazards into the scenario based on injury parameters; and an iteration and output generator to iterate by using additional iterative subsets of the parameters to generate the scenario, generate the explosive device model, model propagation of hazards, and model injuries, until parameter spaces of the parameters are covered. The iteration and output generator generates an injury record based injury outcomes from the modeling of injuries corresponding to the iterating.
Core Innovation
The invention relates to a system and method for estimating the consequences of explosive events and the impact of mitigating strategies against such events. It involves generating scenarios based on user inputs and parameter distributions, modeling explosive device characteristics, propagation of hazards resulting from an explosion, and associated injuries to populations within defined scenarios. The system iteratively uses subsets of these parameters to perform probabilistic simulations until the entire parameter space is covered, producing injury records reflecting the modeled outcomes.
The method addresses the deficiencies in existing modeling packages which either require enormous amounts of building-specific data or lack integration across different modeling components to evaluate complex outcomes. By utilizing distributions of scenario, explosive device, hazard, injury, and medical mitigation parameters, the method probabilistically generates and models scenarios that can represent a wide range of explosion events both indoor and outdoor, including corresponding medical responses.
Claims Coverage
The patent claims cover several inventive features centered on a computerized method and system to model explosion consequences, including scenario generation, explosive device modeling, hazard propagation, injury modeling, iterative probabilistic simulation, and medical mitigation modeling.
Iterative Monte-Carlo probabilistic modeling of explosion scenarios
Using iterative subsets of distributions of scenario, explosive device, hazard, and injury parameters to generate and model explosion scenarios, device models, hazard propagation, and injuries until the parameter spaces are covered.
Three-dimensional grid discretization for scenario representation
Discretizing the space representing the explosion scenario into a three-dimensional grid of cells to which hazard parameters are applied for detailed modeling of propagation and injuries.
Scenario generation with geospatial data integration
Generating scenarios based on user indications of indoor or outdoor targets by communicating with geospatial databases, retrieving data, and modeling it within the three-dimensional grid framework.
Comprehensive explosive device modeling including enhancements
Generating explosive device models based on user inputs including explosive materials, fuels, and optional enhancements such as casing, fragmentation, and thermal enhancements.
Modeling propagation of hazards according to scenario type
Modeling propagation of hazards including interior shockwaves, combustion gases, debris, and building collapse for indoor scenarios and exterior shockwaves and debris for outdoor scenarios based on the discretized grid or isopleths.
Injury modeling incorporating population density and multiple injury mechanisms
Calculating injuries for populations within grid cells or isopleths based on physical parameters from hazards such as pressure, impulse, temperature, fragmentation, and building collapse using probit models and injury severity scoring.
Probabilistic generation of building characteristics using datasets
Generating building parameters probabilistically from datasets such as Hazus for indoor models and using cityscape generation for exterior scenarios integrating multiple geospatial and population datasets.
Medical mitigation response modeling with stock-and-flow simulation
Modeling medical mitigation responses based on injury modeling outcomes, grouping victims by injury exposure, and simulating victim progression and treatment using stock-and-flow approaches incorporating medical resources and countermeasures.
The patent claims collectively cover a comprehensive computer-implemented system and method for probabilistic modeling of explosive event consequences. This includes detailed scenario and explosive device modeling, propagation of various hazards, injury calculations, and integrated medical mitigation response modeling using iterative Monte-Carlo simulations across distributions of relevant parameters.
Stated Advantages
Allows users to model a wide range of potential explosive events with high variability and minimal input by utilizing default parameter distributions.
Provides realistic simulations of shockwave propagation, debris, thermal effects, and building collapse to accurately determine human health effects.
Enables rapid execution of thousands of unique scenarios with Monte-Carlo probabilistic models for generality and thorough exploration of parameter spaces.
Facilitates identification of worst-case outcomes and evaluation of mitigating strategies including medical response resource impact.
Includes a detailed medical mitigation model capturing victim treatment progress, resource consumption, and life-saving outcomes.
Documented Applications
Simulating explosive attacks where explosives are placed either interior to a building or in outdoor spaces, such as car bombs in urban centers.
Evaluating health effects on populations exposed to explosion hazards in various building types and outdoor cityscapes.
Modeling propagation of blast-induced shockwaves, combustion gases, debris, thermal radiation, and building collapse consequences.
Assessing medical mitigation strategies and response capabilities to explosive events including resource requirements and treatment efficacy.
Performing risk and consequence analysis using probabilistic user-selected input scenarios to inform homeland security and emergency preparedness planning.
Interested in licensing this patent?