Real-time projections and estimated distributions of agricultural pests, diseases, and biocontrol agents
Inventors
Fuxman, Adrian M. • Kirk, Devin G. • de Melo, Eduardo Aparecido Sereguin Cabral • Stewart, Gregory E.
Assignees
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Publication Number
US-11631475-B2
Publication Date
2023-04-18
Expiration Date
Abstract
An apparatus includes at least one processor configured to obtain multiple spatiotemporal population projection models. Different spatiotemporal population projection models are associated with different pests, diseases, or biocontrol agents in a growing area. Each spatiotemporal population projection model defines how the associated pest, disease, or biocontrol agent spreads and contracts in the growing area over time. The at least one processor is also configured to receive information associated with an actual presence of a specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent at one or more locations in the growing area. Different locations in the growing area are associated with different plants. The at least one processor is further configured to project a future presence of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent in the growing area using the spatiotemporal population projection model associated with the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent.
Core Innovation
The invention provides real-time systems and methods for plant monitoring in a growing area using multiple spatiotemporal population projection models. Different spatiotemporal population projection models are associated with different pests, diseases, or biocontrol agents and define how the associated pest, disease, or biocontrol agent spreads and contracts in the growing area over time. The system uses actual presence information received from human scouts and/or robotic scouts, with location tagging associated with locations in the growing area and different plants.
Using the spatiotemporal population projection model associated with a specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent, the system projects future presence of that specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent in the growing area. Projecting the future presence comprises generating an estimated distribution of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent across multiple monitored spatial locations in the growing area, producing coverage maps and estimated risk/pressure distributions. The invention supports projections delivered for future presence as estimated distributions across monitored locations.
Based on the estimated distribution, the system identifies at least one treatment to be applied to one or more of the monitored spatial locations. The system also identifies at least one additional treatment based on an effectiveness of the at least one treatment, and controls at least one actuator to initiate the at least one identified treatment and the at least one additional treatment. The invention further provides model commissioning/model identification to minimize error against historical measurements, and includes model forms that incorporate spread and contraction over time, neighbor-location spread, and overall change rate, with optional extensions for treatment impact and climate-dependent growth.
The documented examples include scenarios showing observations versus projections over time and a workflow method for scouting, projection, user notification, and corrective-action initiation. The invention includes projecting and outputting estimated distributions to decision makers and scouts, and it supports using the projections for treatment selection and possible automated initiation via actuators.
Claims Coverage
The document includes three independent claim sets (apparatus, non-transitory computer-readable medium, and method), each centered on obtaining multiple spatiotemporal population projection models tied to different pests, diseases, or biocontrol agents, projecting future presence using actual presence observations, generating an estimated distribution across monitored spatial locations, and selecting treatments with actuator control. Across the independent claims, the same core inventive functionality appears, with claim-type differences in whether it is implemented as an apparatus, computer-readable medium, or method.
Multiple pest/disease/biocontrol spatiotemporal population projection models
Obtain multiple spatiotemporal population projection models, different spatiotemporal population projection models associated with different pests, diseases, or biocontrol agents in a growing area, each spatiotemporal population projection model defining how the associated pest, disease, or biocontrol agent spreads and contracts in the growing area over time.
Actual presence information at monitored locations with plants mapping
Receive information associated with an actual presence of a specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent at one or more locations in the growing area, different locations in the growing area associated with different plants.
Projected future presence via model-specific estimated distribution
Project a future presence of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent in the growing area using the spatiotemporal population projection model associated with the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent, wherein projecting comprises generating an estimated distribution of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent across multiple monitored spatial locations in the growing area.
Treatment identification based on estimated distribution
Identify at least one treatment to be applied to one or more of the monitored spatial locations in the growing area based on the estimated distribution of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent.
Additional treatment identification based on effectiveness
Identify at least one additional treatment based on an effectiveness of the at least one treatment.
Actuator control to initiate selected treatments
Control at least one actuator in order to initiate the at least one identified treatment and the at least one additional treatment.
Across the independent claim sets, the inventive concept is the integration of multiple spatiotemporal population projection models specific to pests, diseases, or biocontrol agents with actual presence observations at monitored locations, to generate an estimated distribution of future presence across monitored spatial locations, and to drive treatment selection (including an additional effectiveness-based treatment) with actuator initiation.
Stated Advantages
Supports projecting future presence and generating estimated distributions (risk/pressure) across monitored spatial locations in a growing area based on actual presence information.
Supports identifying treatments to be applied based on the estimated distribution of the specific pest, disease, or biocontrol agent.
Supports selecting at least one additional treatment based on effectiveness and initiating selected treatments via actuators.
Documented Applications
Plant monitoring in a growing area using multiple spatiotemporal population projection models for pests, diseases, and biocontrol agents, including scouting inputs and projecting estimated distributions for treatment selection and initiation.
Output of estimated distributions and projections for user notification/alerts to scouts and decision makers, and workflow-based scouting, projection, user notification, and corrective-action initiation.
Use of the approach to support crop productivity forecasting as described in the document’s summary context.
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